Pessimistic Swiss SMEs

In the run-up to the Swiss Economic Forum (SEF), the NZZ and Kalaidos University of Applied Sciences measured the mood in the Swiss economy for the fifth time with the NZZ SME Barometer. The survey provides information about the concerns and prospects of the Swiss economy, in particular small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). 519 people took part in the survey conducted in April, with the vast majority of respondents working in the management, board of directors or senior management of their company.

SMEs more pessimistic than they have been for a long time

At -6.3 index points, the overall index reached its lowest level since the survey began. Compared to the previous year, it has fallen by 7.9 index points. Although some indicators such as competitiveness and the potential for sustainable economic activity continue to be rated positively, a downward trend is also evident here. The economic policy of the USA under Donald Trump in particular is having a negative impact on future expectations. "The tariff war and the economic policy measures of the new US government are causing great concern among Swiss SMEs. They expect rising prices and more difficult conditions in business with America, but still see few opportunities to protect themselves against this," comments Peter A. Fischer, Chief Economist at NZZ.

Europe as a production location: increasing importance

As a result of the changed geopolitical conditions, 46% of respondents predict that Europe will become increasingly important as a production location. 20.4 percent of export-oriented companies state that they have postponed investments due to the prevailing uncertainty, while only 5.5 percent intend to accelerate investments. Donald Trump's presidency and geopolitical uncertainties are also bringing other issues to the fore. 88% of respondents are in favor of increasing military investment in Europe. Another 88% consider additional IT security measures to be necessary due to current developments.

SMEs under the spell of AI

Artificial intelligence remains in first place among the focus topics - 25% of respondents named it as the topic that will occupy them most in the next three years. This is followed by the shortage of skilled workers with 17% and the advancing digitalization with 16%. Among the focus topics, artificial intelligence remains in first place - 25% of respondents named it as the topic that will be of particular concern to them over the next three years. This is followed by the shortage of skilled workers at 17% and advancing digitalization at 16%.

Source: company.nzz.ch

 

Economic forecast revised downwards

According to the economic umbrella organization Economiesuisse, economic growth in Switzerland is cooling off somewhat. According to the forecast, the unsettled global economy will lose considerable momentum over the course of the year. The weakness in demand is particularly pronounced in the capital goods sector, but is also affecting the consumer goods industry in the Swiss export sector. Only service exports are less affected. The trade disputes triggered by US President Donald Trump are seen as the main cause. As these are expected to continue, the outlook for 2026 is also subdued. In contrast, the Swiss domestic economy is growing solidly. Economiesuisse estimates that real Swiss gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 1.1% overall in 2025. At 1.4%, growth will also be below potential in 2026. The employment situation will deteriorate slightly and the unemployment rate will rise to 3.0% (2025) and 3.1% (2026). Inflation this year and next will average 0.3% (2025) and 0.8% (2026). Short-term interest rates will fall to zero.

Source: economiesuisse