Bankruptcy record in Switzerland - trend reversal probably not until 2027

The bankruptcy vulture continues to circle unstoppably over Switzerland: "In Switzerland [1], a new record number of corporate insolvencies is on the horizon for 2025," warns Jan Möllmann, CEO of Allianz Trade Switzerland. "This is already the fifth increase in a row. We will probably end up with around 10,900 cases. That's an increase of 26 % year-on-year, not even taking into account the special cases of dissolutions due to organizational deficiencies in accordance with Article 731b of the Swiss Code of Obligations." 

Although a trend reversal is expected for 2026, this is likely to be moderate with a decline of just 7 % and continue to point to a persistently high level of over 10,000 insolvencies. Two factors support this forecast. Firstly, the economic and financial fundamentals point to below-average growth rates, while the tariffs introduced by the US have further dampened the outlook. Secondly - and more crucially - the reform of insolvency law that has been in force since January 1 will inevitably lead to an increase in the number of companies against which insolvency proceedings are opened.

Customs duties: delayed effects, ongoing risk

The US government's import tariffs are expected to reach an effective rate of 14 % by the end of the year, with very different impacts on companies globally. US companies are currently still in a relatively comfortable position as they benefit from price adjustments by foreign exporters and the widespread detour of goods via third countries such as India and Vietnam. This limits additional costs and insolvencies. However, if global trade slows down, several economies that are heavily dependent on exports could feel the impact even more.

"In the first half of 2025, insolvencies in the US fell by 4 percentage points," says Maxime Lemerle, Head of Insolvency Research at Allianz Trade. "This was mainly due to the protective effects of tariffs and their moderate pass-through, as well as good demand, which offset most of the negative effects. However, the picture is completely different in some export-oriented economies, where insolvencies are likely to rise: In the worst case scenario, Canada could see 1,900 additional insolvencies, France 6,000, Spain up to 2,900 and the Netherlands 700." In contrast, the experts expect only a minor impact in Germany, the UK, Italy and Belgium, either due to diversified export markets, a higher domestic base or a stronger financial situation.

Peak in 2025, further increase in 2026

Based on this outlook, the forecast for global corporate insolvencies in 2025 remains unchanged at 6 %, following an increase of 10 % in 2024. Global insolvencies have reached a new high since 2019 and are expected to be around 19 % above the pre-pandemic average by the end of the year. The data since the beginning of the year shows a significant increase in all regions, particularly in Asia and Western Europe, with the biggest jumps in Italy (+38 %) and Switzerland (+26 %).

Commenting on the outlook for 2026, Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade, says: "As mitigation strategies become less effective and secondary effects kick in, the impact of the trade war could soon test companies' resilience. The risk of domino effects due to a rising number of major insolvencies is also increasing. This leads to increased payment default risks: We now expect global corporate insolvencies to rise by +5 % by 2026, up from +3 % in our previous forecast. This would be the fifth consecutive increase."

Minimal trend reversal not expected until 2027

With this fifth consecutive increase, the level will be around 24 % above the pre-pandemic average. "Even though the recovery will be gradual, the trend could reverse in 2027 and the number of corporate insolvencies worldwide could fall by 1 %," explains Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade.

The Allianz Trade experts see three critical weak points that are putting the resilience of companies to the test: Continued subdued economic growth, tighter financing conditions in some cases and sector-specific risks, particularly due to structural change, technological upheaval and increased competition, especially in the construction and automotive sectors. In the USA and the eurozone, economic growth is likely to remain below the threshold required to stabilize insolvencies. The persistently high interest rates and simultaneously restrictive credit offers are primarily affecting debt-financed and capital-intensive companies and SMEs.

[1]  Since January 1, 2025, Switzerland has reformed its debt enforcement system by repealing paragraphs 1 and 1bis of Article 43 of the Federal Debt Enforcement and Bankruptcy Act. Claims under public law (VAT, taxes, social security contributions) can now lead directly to a declaration of bankruptcy for companies entered in the commercial register.

Further information on this topic can also be found in this article (paywall): How to protect yourself from the wave of company bankruptcies.