How will the reduced US tariffs affect the Swiss export industry?
Since August 1, the Swiss export industry has been suffering from the 39% tariff imposed on Switzerland by the US. According to the latest negotiations, the rate is to be reduced to 15%. What does this mean for the Swiss export industry?
The US has published a joint statement with Switzerland and Liechtenstein on future «fair, balanced, and reciprocal trade.» The statement outlines the conditions for reducing the current tariff rate from 39 % to 15 %. The US aims to offset the trade deficit of $38.5 billion that it has calculated.
Investments worth billions
Switzerland and Liechtenstein have agreed to invest at least $200 billion in the United States. It is still unclear over what period of time these investments will be made. Part of this sum has already been earmarked for announced investments of USD 73.23 billion over the next five years, primarily by the pharmaceutical industry. USD 67 billion is expected to be invested as early as next year. By comparison, Switzerland will have invested around USD 54 billion in the US by 2023.
Export losses halved thanks to new customs duty rate
If the tariff rate of 39 % (effectively 25 %*) is maintained in 2026, export losses of USD –18 billion will result. This has been calculated by experts at Allianz Trade, a leading provider of trade credit insurance. With the trade deal of 15 % (effectively 11 %), the losses will still amount to USD –7 billion, which is only half as much. The trade agreement will reduce the decline in GDP growth by around 0.3 percentage points for 2026 compared to a tariff rate of 39 %. Metals, the machinery industry, and household goods are most affected by the tariffs. Pharmaceuticals and semiconductors remain exempt, as they are waived through investments in the US; otherwise, the tariff rate would increase from an effective 11% to 17.5%, with correspondingly higher losses.
Positive forecasts
«Despite the decline in GDP in the third quarter of 2025 of –0.5% compared to the second quarter of 2025, we expect growth of +1.3% for the current year. A recovery in exports is already expected in the fourth quarter of 2025,» says Jan Möllmann, CEO of Allianz Trade Switzerland, optimistically. «For 2026, we can raise our forecast slightly with the new trade agreement, from the current +1.1% to an estimated +1.4%.»
According to the White House, the United States, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein are working to conclude the agreement on mutual, fair, and balanced trade in early 2026.
* The effective duty rate is the average duty actually paid after taking into account exemptions, allowances, preferences, or special arrangements. It can therefore be significantly lower than the official, so-called nominal duty rate.
Source: Alliance Trade
