Swiss Managers Survey 2026: Geopolitical Uncertainty Slows Investment and Job Creation

The 2026 edition of the Swiss Managers Survey, conducted by the ZHAW School of Management and Law in collaboration with the Scuola universitaria professionale della Svizzera italiana (Supsi) and the Haute Ecole Arc, paints a sobering picture: Geopolitical upheavals have taken hold in the Swiss economy. Only 1 in 10 companies now reports not being affected by these developments. The industrial sector, in particular, is heavily exposed—one in three companies reports that its business has been significantly impacted.

The survey took place from May 18 to June 5, 2026, and includes 332 responses from executives at companies across all language regions, industries, and company sizes—67 percent of whom are members of senior management or boards of directors.

Geopolitical Uncertainty as the New Normal

While geopolitical risks were previously viewed as temporary events, this assessment has fundamentally changed: Fewer than 10 percent of companies still believe the situation will improve anytime soon. And although tariffs have been the dominant topic in public discourse—including the surprisingly high 39 percent import tariff that the U.S. imposed on Switzerland on August 1, 2025—company executives are preoccupied with entirely different concerns. At the top of the list are supply chain uncertainties, which 30 percent of respondents cite as the greatest geopolitical risk. Exchange rate and financial market volatility (17 percent), as well as cybersecurity and dependence on digital infrastructure (14 percent), rank ahead of trade barriers and tariffs (13 percent).

«While tariffs took center stage in the public debate, it was supply chains in particular that caused managers headaches. »Efforts to reduce dependence on individual suppliers primarily generate costs without yielding efficiency gains,” says Dr. Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek of the International Management Institute at the ZHAW School of Management and Law.

Investment freeze and frozen hiring plans

The cost-cutting measures being implemented by many companies are having a noticeable impact on the labor market and investment. About 28 percent of companies report that they have not created any new jobs due to geopolitical risks, and another 18 percent are considering such steps. This means that geopolitical uncertainty has directly affected Swiss households.

The reluctance to invest is even more pronounced: 52 percent of companies have already postponed investments or are considering doing so. In contrast, relatively few companies have actively sought out new markets (15 percent)—a picture of stagnation rather than a strategic offensive.

«Geopolitical uncertainty has become the new normal for companies. They have accepted that this is not a brief storm, but a long-term weather pattern. The uncertainty acts as a brake. Executives are more likely to think twice before making a purchase or hiring a new employee,» explains Prof. Dr. Florian Keller, Head of the Center for Geopolitics and Competitiveness at the ZHAW School of Management and Law.

Geographic Realignment: The U.S. Loses Ground, India Gains Ground

The geographic focus of business activity is also shifting. The trend from the previous year continues: 68 percent of respondents view the U.S. as a business region more negatively than before, with 38 percent of them reporting a significant deterioration. Europe is confirmed as an important anchor, while business in China remains stable. India is considered the biggest climber: Over 38 percent of executives report a more positive attitude toward the emerging economic power, with which Switzerland has benefited from a free trade agreement since October 2025.

«The slowdown in the job market is usually attributed to AI—but people overlook the fact that geopolitical uncertainty also has a direct impact on employment and investment,» emphasizes Dr. Siyana Gurova of the International Management Institute at the ZHAW School of Management and Law.

Slight Improvement in the Business Climate Index

After several years of steady decline, the SMS Business Climate Index for 2026 is showing slight signs of recovery. Improved expectations for the coming months have contributed to this trend. However, the business climate remains well below the peak reached in 2022.

The Swiss Managers Survey is conducted annually by the ZHAW Institute for International Management in collaboration with Supsi and the Haute Ecole Arc. Network partners include the Zurich Chamber of Commerce, the Vaud Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CVCI), the Winterthur Chamber of Commerce and Employers’ Association (HAW), and the Swiss-Central European Chamber of Commerce (SEC).

Source: ZHAW School of Management and Law