OWM Trendbarometer: Advertisers are cautiously optimistic about 2026

Cautiously optimistic sales expectations and continued pressure on advertising investments: OWM Trendbarometer forecasts stagnating media budgets in 2026. Proof of advertising effectiveness and future topics gain relevance

The OWM Trendbarometer outlines a subdued outlook for the German advertising market. While around 70 percent of the OWM member companies surveyed reported a positive sales trend in the current year - an increase compared to the previous year - advertising investments are declining significantly. The proportion of companies that have cut their budgets in the current year has more than doubled.

Most companies also expect advertising expenditure to stagnate in 2026.

Despite this development, the economic outlook is cautiously optimistic. The majority of respondents expect stable to slightly increasing turnover for the coming year. However, caution prevails in the assessment of the overall economic situation: a smaller number of companies than in the previous year expect the situation to deteriorate. But only a few expect an improvement. The greatest uncertainty factors include the consumer climate, customs duties, political developments and the energy supply.

Proof of advertising effectiveness, fragmentation and AI as key challenges

At 92%, the biggest challenge in marketing communication is the lack of traceability of advertising impact - a figure that has increased once again compared to the previous year. This is followed by the accessibility of fragmented target groups (89 %) and data quality for programmatic targeting (85 %). Artificial intelligence, regulatory requirements, the call for more transparency and employee qualification continue to gain relevance, while technical topics such as programmatic and MarTech are receding slightly into the background.

Future orientation in demand - industry under critical scrutiny

Most companies are confident about their own future viability. However, the industry as a whole is viewed far more critically: Few consider the marketing and media system in Germany to be sufficiently „future ready“ to cope with future challenges. Respondents see the increasing use of AI and automation as the most important drivers up to 2030, followed by the fragmentation of the media landscape and the need for comprehensive measurability.

Digital media continues to grow

According to the trend barometer, online video, connected TV, influencer marketing, social media and retail media will continue to grow in 2026. Podcasts are also gaining in importance. Search is viewed more cautiously, while traditional channels such as print and linear TV continue to come under strong pressure.

The OWM Trendbarometer was conducted in September/October 2025 by Gess GmbH on behalf of the OWM. The Organization of Advertisers in the German Brands Association (OWM) is the central interest group for advertising companies in Germany, which campaigns for freedom of communication, transparent business relationships and fair competition in the marketing/media sector.