EY Study: Geopolitical Risks in Switzerland—Gaps in Preparedness

Geopolitical tensions, trade conflicts, sanctions, and regulatory changes have long since ceased to be merely abstract threats to Swiss companies. They are increasingly having a direct impact on business operations, growth, and strategic decisions—and the issue of geopolitical risks in Switzerland has thus become a top priority. At the same time, the latest 2026 EY Geostrategy in Practice Survey of Swiss Companies reveals a significant gap between the identification of political risks and companies’ ability to systematically prepare for their occurrence. For the study, a total of 244 executives and decision-makers from companies of various sizes and industries operating in Switzerland were surveyed in July and August 2026.

Monitoring, yes—systematic control, no

The vast majority of the companies surveyed are engaged in identifying and monitoring political risks. 73 percent monitor and assess political risks and their likelihood of occurrence at least occasionally, while 48 percent do so regularly and proactively. In addition, 72 percent draw insights from internal and external sources, and two-thirds (66 percent) collect both qualitative and quantitative data. The overall impact on business is also analyzed extensively: 81 percent of companies assess this at least on an ad hoc basis.

Upon closer examination, however, this percentage decreases. Of the 59 percent that quantify the expected impacts on individual business units, only 32 percent do so regularly and proactively. The gap is even more evident when it comes to concrete risk management: While just under six in ten companies (59 percent) conduct scenario analyses, only about three in ten (30 percent) do so systematically and proactively. The remaining 29 percent conduct scenario analyses only on an ad hoc and reactive basis. Stress tests (25 percent), trigger-based emergency measures (18 percent), and tabletop simulations (16 percent) are used regularly and proactively even less frequently.

Famke Krumbmüller, Partner and EY Geostrategy Europe Leader, comments on the findings: «Geopolitical risks have become a tangible business factor for Swiss companies. The vast majority are monitoring developments and trying to assess their implications. However, the results also show that there is still a significant gap between recognizing a risk and systematically preparing for its occurrence—a trend we are also observing in other countries. Especially in an increasingly volatile environment, it is no longer enough to simply monitor developments. Companies must be able to run through different scenarios, clearly identify the implications, and derive concrete courses of action from them at an early stage.»

A lack of clear responsibilities hinders geostrategic expertise

There is also room for improvement when it comes to embedding geostrategy within the organization. Only 22 percent of the companies surveyed have systematically and proactively assigned responsibility for geostrategic issues to a specific individual, function, or cross-functional team. Half (50 percent) do not identify the relevant roles and do not recruit individuals with the appropriate geostrategic background.

The difficulty of predicting geopolitical developments is also reflected in the experiences of the past twelve months: 42 percent of the companies surveyed report that at least 40 percent of the political risk events that affected them were unexpected. Krumbmüller comments: «The high number of unexpected events underscores how difficult it has become to model geopolitical developments using traditional risk management approaches. Companies therefore need not only better information but also structures that enable rapid decision-making and implementation. The key is not to correctly predict every political event. The key is to be prepared for various developments and to be able to react quickly when necessary.»

Revenue, supply chains, and growth are the hardest hit

The impact of political risks is already clearly evident in key business areas. More than half of the companies surveyed (53 percent) report negative effects on revenue and sales over the past 24 months—the highest figure among all areas examined. For operational processes and supply chains, the figure is just under half (49 percent). Growth and investments are also affected: 41 percent of companies report negative impacts on growth, investments, or transactions. In finance and taxes, the share is 28 percent; for reputation and compliance, it is 24 percent; and for technology, data, and intellectual property, it is 23 percent. Positive impacts are cited much less frequently: For revenue and sales, 14 percent report positive effects, while for growth, investments, and transactions, the figure is eight percent.

Companies are responding to the changing environment with specific adjustments. Nearly half (48 percent) have made at least moderate changes to their risk management over the past 24 months. Forty-five percent have made at least moderate adjustments to their strategy, as well as to growth, investments, and transactions. About four in ten companies have also adjusted their approach to technology, AI, data, and intellectual property (44 percent), compliance (42 percent), and their operational processes and supply chains (41 percent).

Among the 110 respondents who made at least moderate adjustments to growth, investments, or transactions, a more cautious investment strategy is evident: 41 percent reduced the breadth or number of their investment markets, while 16 percent increased them. Thirty-seven percent report a decline in confidence when entering new markets, 35 percent have raised their minimum returns or risk premiums, and another 35 percent have seen longer approval times for transactions.

Geopolitical Risks in Switzerland Are Shaping AI and Technology Strategy

The impact of geopolitical risks is particularly evident in the areas of technology, AI, and data. Of the 108 respondents who have made at least moderate adjustments in this area, half (50 percent) report that their company has changed the rules governing AI governance, deployment, or use based on the market or region. 43 percent have strengthened controls over cross-border data, technologies, or intellectual property. 30 percent are increasingly relying on sovereign, local, or country-specific AI and cloud solutions, 29 percent have reduced their dependence on certain foreign technology providers, platforms, or ecosystems, and 27 percent have regionalized or localized their data, AI, or technology infrastructure across different jurisdictions.

Famke Krumbmüller summarizes the findings: «Geopolitics is increasingly changing not only the perception of risk, but also the way companies invest, use technology, and shape their strategy. For Swiss companies with international networks in particular, the ability to translate geopolitical developments into business decisions is becoming a key strategic competency. Companies that establish clear lines of responsibility, systematically analyze scenarios, and prepare concrete courses of action cannot eliminate uncertainty—but they can significantly increase their resilience.»

Source: https://www.ey.com/ch