The underdog effect: the psychology behind football disappointments

Every four years, the FIFA World Cup reminds us that football doesn't follow a script. Champions fail without warning. Penalty kicks decide legacies in a matter of seconds. Favorites collapse under the pressure. And sometimes the teams that make history are the ones you least expect.

From outsider to «team of the hour»

From France's shock elimination in the group stage in 2002 to Germany's shock exit in 2018, the so-called «Champions Curse» has often turned dominance into downfall. From the unbearable tension of a penalty shoot-out to professionals losing their temper on the biggest stage in the world - the line between success and failure is razor-thin. And yet one pattern emerges again and again in this chaos: the rise of the outsider - the underdog.

Switzerland has earned a reputation as one of the most tenacious competitors in international football. Whether reaching the quarter-finals in 1934, 1938 and 1954 or pulling off repeated surprise victories against higher-ranked opponents in recent tournaments, Swiss teams have repeatedly shown the importance of discipline, adaptability and self-confidence under pressure. Alongside stories such as Croatia's run to the final in 2018 and Morocco's historic success in 2022, Switzerland's football history illustrates how teams with mental freedom can exceed expectations on the world's biggest stage.

According to Hogan Assessments, the international leader in personality trait analysis, the same dynamic applies off the field. «Underdogs are successful not despite the pressure, but because they experience it differently,» says Dr. Ryne Sherman, Chief Science Officer at Hogan Assessments and co-host of the Podcasts The Science of Personality. «When expectations are low, people are more willing to take risks, trust their instincts and perform clearly. In high-stakes environments, this mentality can make the difference between hesitation and breakthrough.»

1. the unlikely candidate: when low expectations unleash high performance

In modern football, underdog teams often play with a freedom that their opponents cannot afford. They have nothing to lose, attack boldly, take risks and upset the status quo.

The same phenomenon is becoming increasingly common in the workplace, especially in an era characterized by AI-driven recruitment and algorithmic shortlisting. The «perfect candidate» on paper doesn't always perform the best. Instead, it is often the unconventional candidate who is often overlooked or underestimated, or who is slightly outside the ideal image, who brings new ways of thinking and a surprising impact.

«Selection systems are often designed to minimize risk, but performance often comes from those who are willing to take it,» explains Dr. Sherman. «Underdog candidates are less constrained by expectations. This freedom can translate into creativity, resilience and decisive action when it counts most.»

2. the unexpected leader: rethinking authority and influence

When Croatia reached the final in 2018, few expected the team to be able to compete with the traditional greats of football. Equally, Argentina's World Cup triumph came under a coach who many initially saw as a temporary solution rather than a long-term visionary.

In both cases, leadership did not follow convention, but evolved in real time. In the business environment, the same pattern is crystallizing. First-time managers, interim leaders and unconventional leaders are taking on increasingly important roles and achieving success not by replicating previous models, but by reinterpreting them.

«Leadership is not just about experience or authority, but also about adaptability under pressure,» says Dr. Sherman. «Underdog leaders often listen better, adapt faster and create environments where teams feel empowered to perform. That can be a powerful competitive advantage.»

3. the make-or-break moment: performing when it counts

Few moments in sport are as tense as a World Cup knockout game. One mistake, one small moment of carelessness, and years of preparation can be wiped out in the blink of an eye. However, underdog teams in particular often hit top form at such moments, precisely because they are less burdened by the fear of failure. In professional life, similarly significant moments define careers: an important presentation, a promotion decision, a leadership crisis.

«When the stakes are high, mentality is everything,» notes Dr. Sherman. «Those who are overly focused on not failing tend to go into the game defensively. Those who focus on the opportunity and what they can achieve are far more likely to perform exceptionally.»

The final whistle: Why the underdog mentality is more important than ever

While the World Cup continues to deliver dramatic moments, one lesson stands out: success is not only reserved for the favored teams, but is often achieved by those who are psychologically best able to seize the moment.

In a workplace characterized by rapid change, AI-driven upheaval and increasing pressure to perform, the underdog mentality becomes a decisive advantage. «The lesson from football is clear,» concludes Dr. Sherman. «Talent and experience are important - but they are not enough. The ability to stay calm, take risks and perform without fear is what ultimately separates those who succeed from those who fall short of expectations.» Because both on the pitch and in the boardroom, the greatest victories rarely go to those who are expected to win - but to those who are brave enough to believe in their success.

Source: Hogan Assessments