450 million: Black Friday daily sales continue to decline
The 10th anniversary of Black Friday is now behind us. Our projections show that sales were slightly lower than last year at CHF 450 million. We take stock of the event and look ahead to the coming year and Cyber Monday on Monday.
Monday is Cyber Monday, the last of the major shopping events. The day offers shoppers another opportunity to find attractive discounts in online retail. Following the decline in sales on Black Friday, we also expect a negative trend for Cyber Monday.
Black Friday: Sales decline for the second consecutive year
According to our projections, Swiss non-food retailers generated sales of CHF 450 million within 24 hours on Black Friday yesterday. That is around CHF 10 million less than in the previous year. While brick-and-mortar retailers recorded noticeable losses, online sales stagnated. This means that the two-year downward trend is continuing.
A key reason for the decline in sales is the now common practice among many retailers of extending their promotions over several days or even weeks, rather than concentrating on the 24 hours of Black Friday. In addition, ongoing economic uncertainty and the strong Swiss franc, which makes imports cheaper, dampened sales.
Retail expert Julian Zrotz from blackfridaydeals.ch says: «The decline in sales during the 24 hours of Black Friday shows the ongoing structural change in the market. The previous massive sales peak is flattening out somewhat, in favor of a broader distribution of purchases throughout Black Friday week and the rest of November.»
We predict that this trend will continue in the coming year and that almost all retailers will extend Black Friday to several days or even weeks. The classic 24 hours of Black Friday will thus continue to lose relevance. Due to ongoing margin pressure and significantly earlier and more strategic planning of promotions, we hardly expect to see any more unprofitable discount campaigns for retailers, as was often the case a few years ago. Instead, retailers will increasingly focus on expanding their loyalty programs and personalized offers during shopping events.
Monday is Cyber Monday: Online retail sales decline to 75 million Swiss francs
Cyber Monday concludes the three big shopping days. Unlike Black Friday, this day focuses primarily on electronics and online retail. However, the attractiveness of the offers is comparable. Numerous retailers extend their existing Black Friday discounts, while other providers supplement their promotions or even launch completely new ones.
We forecast a slight decline in sales for Cyber Monday in the non-food online retail sector. This is expected to amount to 75 million Swiss francs, which corresponds to a decrease of around 5 million francs compared to the previous year. The main reason for this development is the shift in sales away from individual shopping days to the surrounding days and weeks. This development is reinforced by the ongoing economic uncertainties. Sales of non-essential products, such as consumer electronics, are particularly affected by this decline.
The proximity of the shopping days to Christmas has little impact. A representative DemoSCOPE survey conducted on behalf of blackfridaydeals.ch shows that just under half of Swiss people think that the shopping days are too close to Christmas and thus unnecessarily commercialize the Advent season. A third, on the other hand, find this proximity convenient. For many consumers, the promotional days offer the opportunity to buy gifts at particularly low prices. Retailers, in turn, are taking advantage of the increased demand and focusing on typical gift items.
